Wednesday, April 5, 2017

220-Cities-Losing-All-Passenger-Train-Service-per-Trump


Elimination of all federal funding for Amtrak's national network trains
Stations used by 144.6 million Americans will close

March 16, 2017 
National Association of Railroad Passengers 
Washington, D.C. — The National Association of Rail Passengers, the premiere national organization speaking for the nearly 40 million users of passenger trains and rail transit, denounced the budget outline released today by the Trump Administration, which slashes investment in transportation infrastructure. These cuts to Amtrak, transit, and commuter rail programs, and even air service to rural towns, would not only cost construction and manufacturing jobs, but place a disproportionate amount of pain on rural and working class communities.

"It's ironic that President Trump's first budget proposal undermines the very communities whose economic hardship and sense of isolation from the rest of the country helped propel him into office," said NARP President Jim Mathews. "These working class communities—many of them located in the Midwest and the South—were tired of being treated like 'flyover country.' But by proposing the elimination of Amtrak's long distance trains, the Trump Administration does them one worse, cutting a vital service that connects these small town economies to the rest of the U.S. These hard working, small town Americans don't have airports or Uber to turn to; they depend on these trains."

"What's more, these proposed cuts come as President Trump continues to promise that our tax dollars will be invested in rebuilding America's infrastructure," continued Mathews. "Instead, we have seen an all-out assault on any project—public and private—that would advance passenger rail. These cuts and delays are costing the U.S. thousands of good-paying construction and manufacturing jobs in America's heartland at this very moment."

Mathews was referring to the decision by Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao to indefinitely suspend a grant that would allow California to proceed with a commuter rail electrification project. Caltrain, the agency overseeing the project, estimates the project would create 9,600 total direct and indirect jobs. The delay also threatens the construction of a new railcar assembly plant planned for Salt Lake City, which would generate sustainable, family-wage jobs for 550 employees.

The White House budget would lead to a nightmare scenario for people who depend on passenger rail, transit, commuter rail, and even regional air service in the United States, from Wall Street to Main Street. The proposal cuts $2.4 billion from transportation, a 13 percent reduction of last year's funding, and includes:

Elimination of all federal funding for Amtrak's national network trains, which provides the only national network service to 23 states, and the only nearby Amtrak service for 144.6 million Americans;

$499 million from the TIGER grant program, a highly successful program that invests in passenger rail and transit projects of national significance;

Elimination of $2.3 billion for the Federal Transit Administration's "New Starts" Capital Investment Program, which is crucial to launching new transit, commuter rail, and light-rail projects.
Long distance rail routes open up enormous economic development opportunities, which the Administration's proposal ignores or casts aside. The plan threatens the following long distances routes:

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Hillary Clinton: Pulitzer Prize-Winning Journalist Says Presidential Candidate Approved Sending Sarin Gas To Syrian Rebels


Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh believes that Hillary Clinton approved the sending of sarin gas to Syria. At a time when Clinton is trying to secure the 2016 democratic presidential nomination, Hersh is coming forward with allegations that the democratic presidential front-runner and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was a go-between the Obama Administration and the leaders of Middle Eastern nations (namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey) to set up a horrific sarin gas attack and place the blame on the shoulders of Assad. Why? So that the U.S. could invade Syria and blame Assad.
"By the terms of the agreement, funding came from Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar; the CIA, with the support of MI6, was responsible for getting arms from Gaddafi's arsenals into Syria."
Hersh didn't elaborate as to whether the "arms" he referred to encompassed the chemical precursors for creating sarin gas, which Libya stockpiled. However, multiple independent reports have independently confirmed that Gaddafi of Libya did, indeed, possess such stockpiles. Additionally, the The Free Thought Project reports, the much-touted U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya was operating as a "rat line" for Gaddafi's weaponry while Hillary Clinton was at the helm.

][Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images]

Seymour Hersh isn't the first or only reporter to publicly call out the Hillary Clinton/Syria connection. Christopher Lehmann said on October 7, 2013 that top U.S. (and Saudi) officials were responsible for the chemical weapons being used in Syria. Interestingly, Lehmann's sources were completely different than Hersh's.
"Evidence leads directly to the White House, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, CIA Director John Brennan, Saudi Intelligence Chief Prince Bandar, and Saudi Arabia´s Interior Ministry."
The headline of Lehmann's article? "Top US and Saudi Officials responsible for Chemical Weapons in Syria."

To make matters more damning for Hillary Clinton, two industry-leading U.S. analysts determined that Lehmann was correct. Indeed, the Lloyd-Postal report reportedly concluded that the U.S. government's public claims regarding the attack are inaccurate.
"The US Government's Interpretation of the Technical Intelligence It Gathered Prior to and After the August 21 Attack CANNOT POSSIBLY BE CORRECT."
As one news outlet reports, "Obama has clearly been lying."

[Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images]

However, for the first documented time, Hersh has now pointed the finger at democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton. Indeed, during an interview with Aternet.org, Hersh said that during the Hillary Clinton Secretary of State/Obama Administration, the Benghazi role was to "collect weapons from Libyan stockpiles and send them through Turkey into Syria for a set-up sarin-gas attack, to be blamed on Assad in order to 'justify' the US invading Syria, as the US had invaded Libya to eliminate Gaddafi."
"That ambassador who was killed, he was known as a guy, from what I understand, as somebody, who would not get in the way of the CIA. As I wrote, on the day of the mission hewas meeting with the CIA base chief and the shipping company. He was certainly involved, aware and witting of everything that was going on. And there's no way somebody in that sensitive of a position is not talking to the boss, by some channel."
According to Hersh, this was (in fact) a large part of the Hillary Clinton State Department's operation in Libya. While Hillary Clinton was running the show, her job description reportedly included doing to Syria what had already been done successfully in Libya.
Hersh ultimately wrote a book, The Killing of Osama bin Laden, in which an ex-U.S. intelligence official says that the Hillary Clinton White House rejected 35 targets because they were "insufficiently painful to the Assad regime." Later, the Hillary Clinton White House put forth a target list that included, among other things civilian infrastructure.
"What would the toll to civilians have been if the White House's proposed strike had been carried out?"
In response, Hersh said that he U.S. "tradition" had been to ignore civilian casualties, and he presumed that the tradition would continue under Hillary Clinton.
"U.S. attacks are okay or even desired (so as to terrorize the population into surrender) – not an 'issue', except, perhaps, for the PR people."
When asked why Obama and Hillary Clinton are so "obsessed" with replacing Assad in Syria, the answer was not forthcoming.
"Nobody could figure out why. Our policy has always been against him [Assad]. Period."
This White House policy came long before Hillary Clinton. Indeed, since the Ba'ath Party in 1957, Assad's party has been the subject of a CIA coup. Why? To enable an oil pipeline for the democratic (and Hillary Clinton) favorites, the Saudi's through Syria. Before Hillary Clinton's decades-old plan could come to fruition; however, a multitude of Syrian coups took place.
Despite the efforts of the Hillary Clinton State Department and the Barrack Obama White House, the Trans-Arabia pipeline still doesn't exist.
However, Obama, via Hillary Clinton, is the first U.S. president to serious tried to push for the long-anticipated Syrian regime change that would be required for the pipeline to come to pass.
The issue has drawn Russia into the most substantial conflict with the U.S. since the Cold War, all under Hillary Clinton's leadership of the State Department.
"The US is allied with the Saud family (and with their friends, the royal families of Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, and Oman). Russia is allied with the leaders of Syria – as Russia had earlier been allied with Mossadegh in Iran, Arbenz in Guatemala, Allende in Chile, Hussein in Iraq, Gaddafi in Libya, and Yanukovych in Ukraine (all of whom except Syria's Ba'ath Party, the US has successfully overthrown)."
[Photo by KARAM AL-MASRI /Getty Images]

Maybe Hersh was incorrect to proclaim that "nobody could figure out why" Obama (and previously Hillary Clinton) were so obsessed with overthrowing Assad. According to Hersh, they have all been hired to do specific jobs. Jobs that remained the same after the Warsaw Pact was disbanded.
"Hersh then said that Obama wanted to fill Syria with foreign jihadists to serve as the necessary ground forces for his planned aerial bombardment there, and, 'if you wanted to go there and fight there in 2011-2013, Go, go, go… overthrow Bashar!' So, they actually pushed a lot of people [jihadists] to go. I don't think they were paying for them but they certainly gave visas."
However, Hillary Clinton's America is not required to ally so closely with her Middle Eastern allies.
Rather, the support of the U.S. government to the Syrian rebels is solely at the behest of Hillary Clinton and her friends. If things go right, the Hillary Clinton-supporting aristocrats in the U.S. will be both supplying salaries for jihadists and walking off with a substantial profit.
As CNN reports, Ted Cruz dropped out of the 2016 presidential race tonight. It looks like it's going to be a contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Do you really want a U.S. president in 2017 that is conspiring with our enemies, as Hillary Clinton is reportedly doing?
[Image Courtesy Of Joe Raedle/Getty Images]

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Secret Knowledge—or a Hoax?


Secret Knowledge—or a Hoax?

edited by Raymond Clemens, with an introduction by Deborah Harkness
Beinecke Library/ Yale University Press, 304 pp., $50.00



Beinecke Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Yale UniversityA page from the 'herbal' portion of the Voynich manuscript, a mysterious volume from the first half of the fifteenth century whose script has never been deciphered

In 1969 America's most significant dealer in medieval manuscripts, the Viennese-born bibliophile Hans Peter Kraus, donated a celebrated volume to Yale University's Beinecke Library. Measuring ten inches by seven and bound in limp white vellum (the Renaissance bookbinder's equivalent of paperback, and definitely not the original cover), Kraus's gift was cataloged as Beinecke MS 408.
The manuscript's celebrity is at first sight puzzling, since it is an unglamorous, even somewhat shabby object: 234 pages gathered in eighteen "quires," or foldings, each consisting of between one and six double pages, or "bifolia." Very unusually for a medieval manuscript, Beinecke MS 408 also includes eleven larger "foldout" pages, containing what appear to be astronomical or astrological diagrams. At some date after the book's compilation, each folio was numbered in ink on the right-hand opening (technically known as the recto).

The first 130 pages of the volume are taken up with what appears to be an herbal, each page containing a large if somewhat sloppily executed drawing of a plant, depicting root, stem, flowers, and leaves, around which extensive text, in no recognizable language but written in a fluent cursive hand, has been carefully arranged so as to avoid encroaching on any part of the picture. This "herbal" section is followed by a cluster of large foldout pages decorated with circular zodiacal or astrological diagrams, and this in turn gives way to a section of ten folios containing yet more unrecognizable text, interspersed with decidedly unerotic drawings of groups of plump naked women, bathing in pools and conduits of blue or green water, which some students of the manuscript have suggested might be symbolic representations of bodily functions such as reproduction.
After a further group of large foldout pages with more astronomical images, there follows another cluster of "herbal" images. These consist of multiple small drawings embedded in the text of each page, alongside objects in the margin that resemble pharmacological jars, perhaps suggesting that this part of the manuscript refers back to the opening herbal, and was intended as a collection of medical recipes. The book's closing section consists of twenty-three pages of closely written text without illustration, made up of short paragraphs of just a few lines apiece, each paragraph prefaced by a star or asterisk.

Kraus had bought this baffling manuscript as a commercial speculation in 1961, for $24,500 plus a half share in any future profit. The vendor was Anne Nill, secretary, professional collaborator, and ultimate heir of the manuscript's first discoverer, a remarkable Polish-Lithuanian bookdealer and adventurer, Wilfrid Michael Voynich. Born in 1864 and a graduate in law and chemistry from the University of Moscow, Voynich had been arrested in 1885 as a revolutionary Polish nationalist and had spent five years in exile in Siberia. Escaping via Mongolia on a forged passport, Voynich had ultimately arrived penniless in England, having bartered even his spectacles and waistcoat to pay for his passage. Initially drawn again into revolutionary circles in London around the Ukrainian political agitator Sergei "Stepniak" Kravchinsky, Voynich was befriended by Richard Garnett, keeper of the British Museum Reading Room, the regular haunt of late-nineteenth-century Russian and other Eastern European exiles.

It was at Garnett's suggestion that Voynich put his omnivorously eclectic learning, his cosmopolitan personal connections, and his gifts as a linguist to use as a buyer and seller of rare books, a field in which he rapidly established himself as a piratical and successful entrepreneur. A flamboyant personality regarded with hostility or condescension by less successful dealers and more orthodox bibliophiles, Voynich packed his catalogs with arcane bibliographical detail, which established his reputation for near omniscience: he was soon making money. Specializing at first in incunabula—books printed before 1501—he sold to prestigious collectors and libraries, including the British Museum, which bought the entire contents of his eighth catalog. The books from that purchase, now shelved together in the British Library, provide a snapshot of the rich contents of Voynich's shop in Soho Square, later moved to the grander purlieus of Piccadilly.

The precise circumstances surrounding Voynich's acquisition of Beinecke MS 408 are obscure, but it had certainly been one of a group of manuscripts and books from the library of Athanasius Kircher, the seventeenth-century Jesuit polymath and scientist. Kircher's books were rescued from confiscation by the new state of Italy during its stand-off with the church in the years after unification in 1871, along with other rarities from the library of the Jesuit university in Rome, the Collegio Romano, where Kircher had been a professor for forty years. More than three hundred of these hidden Jesuit treasures ultimately ended up in the Vatican Library, but in 1912 Voynich, who regularly toured Italy in search of incunabula and manuscripts, managed to buy a few. One of these, described by Voynich as the "ugly duckling" of the former Collegio Romano collection, was the future Beinecke MS 408.

If Voynich labeled his acquisition an ugly duckling, he was nevertheless convinced that he had acquired an exceptional swan in the making, for he believed its baffling text concealed a scientific treatise of major importance by one of the greatest minds of the high Middle Ages. In this belief, he was following a letter from the Prague physician Johannes Marcus Marci to Kircher, dated August 19, 1665, which had been tucked inside the manuscript. Marci's letter claimed that the manuscript was the work of the thirteenth-century English Franciscan scientist and alchemist Roger Bacon, and that more recently it had been acquired for the library of the emperor Rudolf II for the very large sum of six hundred golden ducats.

The alleged connection to Bacon would prove to be illusory, but Rudolf's avid interest in alchemy, astrology, magic, and all manner of occult studies, together with the presence on the first leaf of the manuscript of the signature (now invisible to the naked eye) of Jacobus Hořčický de Tepenec (circa 1575–1622), court pharmacist to the emperor, ennobled by Rudolf in 1608, lends plausibility to the alleged imperial provenance. Marci's motive for presenting Kircher with the manuscript was to induce him to decipher the text.

This was not the first such appeal. Marci had acquired the book from the library of another Bohemian alchemist, Georgius Barschius. In 1637 Barschius himself had copied extracts from the manuscript and sent them to Kircher, who, among much else, was an expert on Oriental languages and whose Lingua Aegyptiaca Restituta (1643) would be regarded as a foundational text for the study of Egyptian hieroglyphics. So Barschius hoped that this all-knowing "Oedipus of Egypt" was just the man to decipher his enigmatic manuscript, "a certain riddle of the Sphinx," which he believed must have been written in a code or cipher, as alchemical and magical treatises often were. Kircher told another Prague-based Jesuit mathematician, Theodor Moretus, that he had indeed tried unsuccessfully to decipher the text: marginal traces of an early effort to supply equivalents from the Latin alphabet for the mysterious letters in the manuscript itself may be relics of these attempts at decryption.
Voynich was immensely excited by all this. His knowledge of the court of Rudolf II was not very deep, and largely derived from a popular history of scientific and alchemical studies at the Prague court published in 1904 by Henry Carrington Bolton, an American chemist, bibliographer, and historian of science. Bolton's book, The Follies of Science at the Court of Rudolf II, 1576–1612, gave a prominent place to the English magician and alchemist John Dee, who with his assistant and "scryer," Edward Kelley, spent years attempting to communicate with angels, in order to learn the universal language spoken by Adam in Paradise before the Fall.

Dee's journals contained passages in an arcane alphabet purporting to be written in this language. To Voynich, here was the obvious background for his mysterious new acquisition, and Dee's presence in Rudolfian Prague seemed to provide a plausible conduit for the transmission of a mysteriously encrypted text by Roger Bacon to the court of the alchemist emperor.

Voynich eagerly set about publicizing his manuscript, which he valued at the huge sum of $100,000, and which he invariably referred to as "the Roger Bacon Cipher Manuscript." Especially after the outbreak of war in 1914, his business was increasingly in the United States, and on his many trips to America he did everything he could to talk up the importance of his find. He told The New York Times that "when the time comes, I will prove to the world that the black magic of the Middle Ages consisted in discoveries far in advance of twentieth-century science."

To supplement his own attempts to decrypt the manuscript, he made photographs of individual pages available to inquirers. In a time of war, Voynich's endless harping on decryption prompted suspicions that he might be a spy attempting to penetrate American security, but the decipherment of the so-called Roger Bacon manuscript aroused considerable scholarly interest. It was enthusiastically embraced by distinguished medievalists, including the Chicago-based textual scholar John Matthews Manly, who publicized Voynich's find in an article in Harper's Magazine in 1921 as "The Most Mysterious Manuscript in the World."

Even more sensationally, William Romaine Newbold, a distinguished medievalist and historian of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, toured academic and popular lecture halls with the announcement that he had cracked the code in which this mysterious manuscript was written, and that it did indeed contain amazing revelations. These included the claim that Bacon, in the thirteenth century, had understood and made use of both the compound microscope and the telescope, and with their aid had anticipated the discoveries of twentieth-century scientists about germ cells, spermatozoa, and other mechanisms of organic life.

Newbold's supposed decryption of the Voynich manuscript was taken at face value by world-class scholars like the French medievalist Étienne Gilson, but it was in fact based on an elaborate set of misunderstandings and unfounded hypotheses. Newbold's entire scheme was mercilessly demolished in 1931 in a devastating article in the medieval journal Speculum by none other than J.M. Manly, now disillusioned about all claims to have cracked the Voynich manuscript code. Voynich himself had died of cancer the previous year, but despite the disproof of Newbold's theories and the inaccessibility of the manuscript itself (now locked away in a bank vault by Voynich's widow, Ethel), interest in its mysteries grew. Although he rejected Newbold's claims, Manly remained intrigued by Voynich's manuscript. During World War I he himself had worked as a US Army cryptographer. In 1916 he had been befriended by William F. Friedman, America's most talented maker and breaker of codes, and reputedly the world's greatest cryptologist.

At that time Friedman was based in the department of ciphers at the private research institute funded by the textile magnate George Fabyan at Riverbank, near Chicago. Fabyan was an ardent believer in the theory that Shakespeare's works had in fact been written by Francis Bacon (no relation to Roger Bacon), and the chief code-breaker at Riverbank, Elizabeth Wells Gallup, was the principal advocate of the theory that Bacon had not only written all of Shakespeare, but also the plays of Christopher Marlowe as well as Richard Burton's immense Anatomy of Melancholy. Convinced that all these pseudonymous works were dense with encrypted secret messages, she devoted manic ingenuity to decoding them. Friedman and his wife Elizebeth, initially employed as Gallup's assistants, came to reject her bizarre theories, but the world of American cryptology in the aftermath of the war was saturated with conspiracy theories and fascination with the idea of hidden mysteries in ancient texts.




Beinecke Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Yale UniversityDetail of a page from the Voynich manuscript showing, as Eamon Duffy writes, 'decidedly unerotic drawings of groups of plump naked women, bathing in pools and conduits of blue or green water, which some students of the manuscript have suggested might be symbolic representations of bodily functions such as reproduction'
Friedman, who ultimately became head of cryptology at the National Security Agency, was one of those who applied to Voynich for photographs of his manuscript. He remained intrigued to the end of his life by the attempt to decipher it, and built up what is probably the largest private archive of material relating to it. During World War II, Friedman's team was at the center of successful cracking of the Japanese secret code, "Purple," by US intelligence; but from 1944 onward he found time to establish a special study group devoted to decrypting the Voynich manuscript, which met regularly at Arlington Hall, America's equivalent of Britain's code-breaking center at Bletchley Park.

After the end of World War II, Friedman convened prestigious scholarly seminars devoted to the manuscript. He involved, among many others, Brigadier John Tiltman, the noted British cryptographer and assistant director of the British Intelligence Headquarters (GCHQ), in attempts to decode the manuscript. At Tiltman's suggestion a young NSA cryptologist, Mary D'Imperio, was appointed to continue the ailing Friedman's work on it, and in 1978 she would eventually publish, under the auspices of the National Security Agency, what is still considered the best introduction to its mysteries, The Voynich Manuscript: An Elegant Enigma.

But all to no avail. Voynich's find retained its secrets, and by the time of Friedman's death in 1969, the year Kraus donated the manuscript to Yale, Friedman himself had concluded that rather than being an encrypted text written in cipher, the Voynich manuscript was an early-sixteenth-century attempt to create an artificial universal language.

This steady expansion of interest in the Voynich manuscript was the background to Kraus's speculative purchase in 1961. Like Voynich, Kraus believed this "ugly duckling" might one day lay a golden egg. To preserve its commercial value, he rejected all requests for scholarly access to it and refused to lend it to exhibitions. He put it on the market for $160,000, but despite the escalating scholarly and cryptological fascination, there were no buyers. So in 1969 he decided to cut his losses gracefully and donated Voynich's ugly duckling to Yale.

The deposit of the Voynich manuscript in a great university library at last made sustained scholarly analysis possible, and over the four and a half decades of Yale's custodianship some certainties have been established, and some myths laid to rest. Exhaustive scientific and conservational analysis of the parchment on which the manuscript is written, the stitching of the binding in which it is contained, and the inks and paints with which it was written and illuminated have disposed of the notion that the manuscript dates from the thirteenth century or that it is the work of Roger Bacon. Radio carbon dating of slivers from a range of pages has firmly dated the book's materials to the years around 1430. The vellum pages are made of good-quality (and therefore expensive) calfskin, commonly used in book production all over medieval Europe. (Goatskin vellum, by contrast, would have strengthened the case for a southern German or Italian origin, a provenance favored by many students of the manuscript.)

Equally, all this effectively rules out any possibility that the manuscript is a post-medieval forgery—it is inconceivable that the huge quantities of blank parchment needed for such a forgery could have survived from the early fifteenth century. The book's pages, whose consistency suggests that they derived from a single source, would have required at least fourteen or fifteen entire calfskins. It is therefore overwhelmingly likely that the manuscript was written and illustrated soon after the parchment was prepared, in the first third of the fifteenth century. Its fluent cursive handwriting, without emendation of any kind, seems incompatible with the notion that it might nevertheless be a careful scribal copy of an earlier medieval text. The dating of its materials to the early fifteenth century rules out the suggestion, credited by art historians like Erwin Panofsky, but never very convincing, that the manuscript contains illustrations of plants such as capsicum or the sunflower, unknown before the discovery of the New World.

Scientific study has gone alongside steadily growing public interest. More than 10 percent of the visits to the Beinecke Library website relate to the Voynich manuscript, as do almost 50 percent of visits to the website's zoom-viewer, which enables close-up examination of single pages. When Umberto Eco, the semiologist, medievalist, and author of the best-selling medieval puzzle-novel The Name of the Rose, lectured at Yale to celebrate the Beinecke Library's fiftieth anniversary, the only one of its many treasures he asked to see was the Voynich manuscript. In an era when the fictions of Dan Brown can be imagined to have lifted the lid on ancient conspiracies, none of this is perhaps surprising. The publication by Yale University Press of an actual-size colored facsimile, with an informative set of specialist essays on the manuscript's history, materials, cryptological puzzles, and public impact, will no doubt encourage wider engagement with its enigmas and set off a multitude of amateur as well as professional attempts to decipher it.

But if we can be fairly sure that the manuscript is not a modern forgery, it by no means follows that it is not in fact a medieval hoax. Four centuries of attempts to decode, decipher, or translate the text have all ended in bafflement. The finest cryptological minds of the twentieth century and sustained computer analysis alike have drawn a blank; the text refuses to yield meaning. Attempts to find parallels to the text in cabbalistical, hermetic, or alchemical code systems have all thrown up more disparities than resemblances. What if the book's mysteries are in fact pure mystification, specious appearance that never had any real meaning?

This is a possibility strongly suggested by the manuscript's single largest component, the herbal, with its crudely colored images of plants. No student of the herbal illustrations has ever succeeded in identifying convincingly a single image as any known plant. Medieval herbals were rarely based on exact observation from nature, but even by the conventions of medieval botanical representation, the Voynich images are, collectively and singly, biological impossibilities. Roots and branches bifurcate and then rejoin again to form a single stem (folios 5v, 22, 23, 40, 52), two separate stalks are joined by a single lateral branch or end in the same single leaf (23), slender stalks emerge from holes in the thick flat surfaces of roots that have been cut across like sawn tree trunks (14, 16, 16v, 19, 39v, 45v), and spiky leaves exactly mirror the forms of the same plant's improbable roots (54).

In other words, the "plants" represented in the book's herbal section never did and never could exist in nature: they are pure fantasy. And if the images are, then possibly the text is too. Even an uninformed observer examining any random pages of Beinecke MS 408 will be struck by the highly repetitious character of the text, with the same symbols and clusters of "letters" occurring in consecutive words and lines. This is a feature of the Voynich manuscript that has often been noted. It is one of the reasons for suspecting that the text is not in fact a real language at all, cunningly concealed, but an elegantly scripted but meaningless babble, deploying a limited number of forms over and over again.

Why might such a hoax have been perpetrated? The sheer scale, expense, and complexity of the Voynich manuscript would seem to preclude the notion that it was assembled as some kind of joke: it's hard to imagine a punch line that required so elaborate a buildup. That leaves lunacy or lucre as possible motives. Madness can't entirely be ruled out: mania takes many forms, and a well-to-do obsessive convinced he (or she) held the key to great secrets might drive the production of such a compilation.

But the likeliest motive surely must be money. The modern history of the Voynich manuscript, and the huge investment of time and effort by some of the most ingenious intelligences of the twentieth century in its decipherment, amply testify to human fascination with the possibility of uncovering secret knowledge. Back in the sixteenth century Rudolf II paid some persuasive soul six hundred gold ducats for Beinecke MS 408. It may well be that somewhere in early-fifteenth-century Europe another wealthy seeker after hidden truths was swindled by an equally enterprising purveyor of plausible nonsense. We shall probably never know. But maybe from the pages of Voynich's "ugly duckling," a long quack of derisive laughter peals down the centuries.

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Ground-breaking truffle harvest portends something big in California


By Tara Duggan


In the great race to grow black truffles in Wine Country, Sonoma County has beaten out Napa Valley despite getting a later start.

Jackson Family Wines — owner of Kendall-Jackson, La Crema, Freemark Abbey and other wineries — just announced it harvested 17 of the prized fungi in the hazelnut and white oak orchard it planted and inoculated with Tuber melanosporum (Périgord truffle) spores in 2011 outside Santa Rosa, beating out similar efforts in Napa Valley. The harvest took place several weeks ago, and though the pioneering truffles themselves have disappeared in a cloud of risotto and Pinot Noir, it was the first successful harvest among several orchards betting on Wine Country as the world's next great truffle-growing region.

"We're getting ready. We're going to hit it big," said Fran Angerer of Alexander Valley Truffle Co., whose family has a truffle dog named Tuber and a truffle orchard in Geyserville that could be ready for a harvest next winter. "It's going to hit, and when it hits, it's going to change the truffle world. We are a big market here in the Bay Area, because we have so many restaurants."



High-quality imported fresh black truffles typically cost $800 per pound and are at their prime up to four or five days after harvest, about the time it takes to fly them from Europe or Australia, said Angerer, a former truffle importer. He thinks local ones will fetch much more.
"For the amount of orchards we have right here, we won't have to go any farther than Monterey to get rid of 'em," he said. "Bay Area restaurants are gonna love having truffles that were in the ground this morning and on the plate this evening."

While truffle orchards in Napa Valley, such as one Robert Sinskey Vineyards planted in 2010, have yet to report any tuber discoveries, that doesn't necessarily mean Sonoma is better suited to truffle growing than Napa, said Charles Lefevre of New World Truffieres in Eugene, Ore. Lefevre sold the inoculated seedlings to Jackson Family Wines and dozens of others in Wine Country, and as many as 100 orchards in the state, most of which are new and have yet to produce a harvest.

"We've been working on the orchard quite a few years now," said Brian Malone, orchard and vineyard manager at Jackson Family Wines, who thinks the rainy winter could have something to do with the truffles' debut. "I was just really excited to find one, let alone 17."

It typically takes five to eight years for truffles to grow, and truffle cultivation is still new to North America. There are a few successful farms in Tennessee, as well as British Columbia, Idaho and Oregon, and there have been scattered harvests in other parts of California. Wine Country's climatic similarities with truffles' native homes, such as France's Périgord region, could make it a prime destination.

"Napa and Sonoma have good climates for cultivation of European truffles," said Lefevre, pointing out that the cooler Sonoma Coast is better suited for Burgundy truffles (Tuber uncinatum) and the inland better for the black Périgord truffles grown so far in Wine Country orchards. In addition to Angerer's orchard, there is another near Jackson Family Wines' orchard that Lefevre expects to be successful soon, while many others that have been planted and then abandoned over the years would need work to produce anything.



"I think the reason Jackson Valley Wines succeeded where others have not is because they took it very seriously from the very beginning," said Lefevre, who said that a truffle orchard needs to be maintained with careful pest management, irrigation and weed control. "Jackson Family Wines approached it as an agricultural enterprise from the beginning. To produce in six years is right on schedule."

The winery worked with Umami Truffle Dogs, another Oregon outfit, to locate the truffles, whose inimitable earthy flavors accentuate gourmet cooking.

"You're walking around the orchard and you're trying to find the truffles. The dog points to it. And you stick your face down and you can actually smell the truffle coming up through the ground," said Malone. Then he used his hands to gently feel around in the loamy soil to find and carefully excavate each truffle.

"It reminded me of being a little kid playing in the mud," he said.

Angerer, who plans to organize Sonoma and Napa truffle growers into an association, said the industry has grown rapidly. A few years ago, there weren't any truffle dogs on the West Coast, for example. On Friday, truffle experts from Barcelona visited his Geyserville orchard to take soil samples and test them for their level of Tuber melanosporum spores, a sign of imminent production.
But because truffle harvest typically falls between December and February, Angerer and other truffieres will have to wait many months for further activity.

"Waiting for truffles is like watching — well, they're slower than grass," Angerer said.

Tara Duggan is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: tduggan@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @taraduggan

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The CIA Origins of "ISIS": Ben Swann

Lorna Simpson at Her David Adjaye–Designed Studio - Galerie


The Brooklyn-based artist shares her latest forays into painting, which have taken a potent turn

Spring 2017 By Antwaun Sargent
Before newly knighted architect Sir David Adjaye became a globally renowned designer of civic and cultural buildings—most recently the National Museum of African American History and Culture that sits like an inverted ziggurat on the National Mall—he made his name designing residences and work spaces for artists. One of those projects, a studio for Lorna Simpson and James Casebere in Brooklyn, was the London architect's first completed building in America.



Created in 2006 by architect David Adjaye, artist Lorna Simpson's four-story studio in Brooklyn comprises offices and gallery spaces. The double-height ground-floor salon is outfitted with a vintage sculptural tête-à-tête. Photo: Michael Mundy
"When we were introduced to David, his practice was already shifting toward larger public commissions, and we weren't sure he would be interested in doing a small residential-type building," recounts Simpson (who is no longer married to Casebere). "Later we met him in the Giardini, at the Venice Biennale, and he kind of said, 'Okay, here's what it's going to look like,' and he drew it on a napkin. It evolved from there, and we had a budget but we gave him full rein."
The four-story studio, a crisp gray-concrete structure featuring a strikingly patterned dark-polymer front façade, was completed in 2006. A decade on, the building is now used exclusively by Simpson, and its purpose has evolved. "A lot of my work up until the last three years was created in this building," explains Simpson, seated in the studio's dining area across from a self-portrait by the legendary Cameroonian photographer Samuel Fosso. These days Simpson uses another location nearby as her primary artmaking space, freeing up the Adjaye building for offices and meeting areas, presentation galleries, and a place to reflect upon works in progress.



Simpson with an unfinished work from her new series of paintings. Photo: Michael Mundy
Simpson works in a variety of mediums, but she is best known for her photography-based conceptual pieces that use images of African-American women to deconstruct issues around race, gender, and identity—often with an undeniable lyricism. An influential figure in the art world for more than a quarter-century, she was the first African-American woman to show at the Venice Biennale, in 1990, and she was given an acclaimed solo exhibition at New York's Museum of Modern Art the same year. Shows around the world followed, the latest of which is "Lorna Simpson: Hypothetical?," on view through August 7 at the Fisher Landau Center for Art in Queens.

The artist made her first-ever foray into large-scale painting a couple of years ago with works that debuted at the 2015 Venice Biennale. Hanging on the double-height white walls of the studio's ground floor this past winter were two unfinished monumental black-and-white paintings informed by recent discussions about racial injustice in this country. Titled X5 (Group 1 of 5) and X5 (Group 2 of 5), the works feature screen-printed imagery overlaid with abstract brushwork and repeating tally marks, which evoke the way some prisoners keep track of time served on cell walls as well as the number of black lives lost to police violence. "These paintings were made at the other studio," the artist says, "but I can't hang them there because they're too tall. I like to be able to step back and look at them."
Simpson also uses the space to display select pieces from earlier in her career. Recently mounted across a large wall on the skylighted third floor, for example, was one of her more famous works, Wigs (Portfolio). From a 1994 series represented in MoMA's permanent collection, the multipart piece serves as a visually arresting sociology of hairstyles based on race and gender.



Her 1994 multipart work Wigs (Portfolio) hangs on the third floor, seen here from the top of the birch-lined staircase. Photo: Michael Mundy
The soaring spaces on the ground floor and third floor were conceived by Adjaye as work areas, while the other, smaller floors contain offices and storage. Polished-wood staircases connect the different levels. "The ground-floor studio is a more traditional studio space, large enough to accommodate full-scale models, and focuses on symmetry and light," explains Adjaye. "The upper-floor studio was designed for work with film and photography and focuses much more on the notion of framing." Both spaces, now primarily used by Simpson for showing work, have expanses of glass offering views out to the minimalist Japanese-inspired garden that Adjaye created behind the building. "While the front façade, which is dark and almost impenetrable, works almost as a protective screen," Adjaye says, "the rear opens up generously to the neighborhood."
Simpson says that one of the things she admires most about the building is its contemplative atmosphere. "It's not always about going to the studio and producing work, although that has its own rhythm. It's the thinking about what the pieces are going to be or coming to that place of being able to see them in my head," says the artist, who continues to expand her explorations into painting.
"It is amazing," adds Simpson, "to be able to take that time, in a studio like this, to imagine what it is I want to do next."
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I see Dave Bowman everywhere...

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Aristotle on the Origin of the Jews in India - Graham Hancock Official Website



This article is to try to make sense of a puzzling statement of Aristotle (384-322 BCE) that links Jews with India. This statement is recalled in a fragment by Aristotle's pupil Clearchus who traveled widely and whose inscription on a tomb of a friend is preserved in the Afghan city of Ai-Khanoum.

The Jewish scholar Flavius Josephus (37 – 100 CE) quotes from Clearchus's fragment in his Contra Apionem [Against Apion], which has Aristotle say: "Jews are derived from the Indian philosophers; they are named by the Indians Calami, and by the Syrians Judaei, and took their name from the country they inhabit, which is called Judea." (Book I:22) [1]

I can think of two places that might have been the Calami of Aristotle. The first candidate is the famous port city of Kollam, in Kerala, which was well known to the Phoenicians and Romans, and the second is the ancient city of Kalyani or Kalyan, in Karnataka, which was to later become the capital of one branch of the Chalukya Empire. The second city, which has recently been renamed Basavakalyan, appears to be the older of the two.

The interaction between India and the West during the first millennium BCE is well known as in the mention in Old Testament of trade for ivory, apes and peacocks (1 Kings 10:22). There was thriving bilateral trade between India and Rome both through the overland caravan route and the southern sea route. By the time of Augustus 120 ships set sail every year from Myos Hormos to India. Pliny complains in Historia Naturae 12.41.84, "India, China and the Arabian Peninsula take one hundred million sesterces from our empire per annum at a conservative estimate: that is what our luxuries and women cost us."



Silk Route in the Ancient World circ. 120 BCE-1450s CE.

India and the West had rich interaction in the second millennium BCE also. This was the time of the Mitanni of Syria, who worshiped Vedic gods. The Mitanni ruled northern Mesopotamia (including Syria) for about 300 years, starting 1600 BCE, out of their capital of Vasukhani. In a treaty between the Hittites and the Mitanni, Indic deities Mitra, Varuṇa, Indra, and Nāsatya (Aśvins) are invoked. Their chief festival was the celebration of viṣuva (solstice) very much like in India. It is not only the kings who had Sanskrit names; a large number of other Sanskrit names have also been unearthed in the records from the area.



Mitanni territory circ. 1400BCE.

The list of the Sanskrit names used in Syria and elsewhere was published by P. E. Dumont of the Johns Hopkins University, in the Journal of American Oriental Society in 1947, and one may see a summary of that in my own book chapter on Akhenaten, Sūrya, and the Ṛgveda, which is available here. [2] The names of the main kings are (with the standard Sanskrit form or meaning inside brackets): The first Mitanni king was Sutarna I (good Sun). He was followed by Baratarna I (Paratarṇa, great Sun); Paraśukṣatra (ruler with axe); Saustatar (Saukṣatra, son of Sukṣatra, the good ruler); Paratarṇa II; Artadama (Ṛtadhāman, abiding in cosmic law); Sutarṇa II; Tushratta (Daśaratha or Tveṣaratha, having ten or fast chariots); and finally Matiwazza (Mativāja, whose wealth is thought), during whose lifetime the Mitanni state became a vassal to Assyria.

It is most interesting that the Mitannis were connected by marriage across several generations to the Egyptian 18th dynasty to which Pharaoh Akhenaten (ruled 1352-1336 BCE according to the mainstream view) belonged. Akhenaten's second wife was Tadukhipa ("khipa" from the Sanskrit "kṣipā," night) and she became famous as the queen Kiya (short for Khipa). His first wife was the beautiful Nefertiti, whose bust is available in a museum in Berlin.


Replica bust of Nertiti in the Berlin Museum. CC BY-SA 3.0

Akhenaten ("glory of the Aten") changed his name to honour Aten ("One god" represented as the solar disk) in his sixth year of rule. Many see Akhenaten as the originator of monotheism by his banishment of all deities except for his chosen one. He has been seen as a precursor to the Old Testament prophets, and thus to the Abrahamic religions. Some Biblical scholars see his Hymn to Aten as the original Psalm 104 of the Old Testament [3].

'Amehotep IV' (Akhenaten), found in N. de G. Davies, The Rock Tombs of El Amarna, part VI, 'The Egypt Exploration Fund' (London, 1908).

The other possibility is that Akhenaten's worship of Aten is derived from the Vedic system through the three generations of queens in his family that were from the Mitanni. There are parallels between his hymn and the Sūrya hymns of the Ṛgveda. For example, in both the Sun has absolute power over the lives of animals and men and it provides natural bounties while also residing in the heart of the poet. Note also that Agni is praised as Yahvah in the Ṛgveda 21 times, and Yahweh is the name of the highest divinity in the Old Testament.

If the Vedic element was important, as is perhaps reflected in the mysticism of the Egyptian Book of the Dead, the cult of the dead and resurrection remained the most important element of the Egyptian religion. This cult continues to form the cornerstone of the three Abrahamic faiths.

The Vedic presence via the Mitanni in Egypt and the Near East occurs several centuries before the exodus of the Jews. This presence is sure to have left its mark in various customs, traditions, and beliefs. It may be that this encounter explains uncanny similarities in mythology and ritual, such as circumambulation around a rock, the use of a rosary of 108 beads, (or the idea of 33 gods in pre-Abrahamic traditions). These practices are easily understandable within the Vedic system, whereas they are remembered as commandments to be believed without understanding in the Western faiths. [4]

Sigmund Freud in his essay, Moses and Monotheism (1937) proposes that Moses was an Egyptian linked to the court of Akhenaten. In defence of this proposal he argued that the Hebrew word for "Lord," "Adonai," becomes "Aten" when the letters are written in Egyptian. [5]

The memory of India's interaction with Egypt persisted within the Indo-Iranian world. The Iranian scholar Al-Biruni (973-1048), speaking of chariots of war in his book Tarikh Al-Hind, mentions the Greek claim that they were the first to use them and insists they are wrong because the chariots were already invented by Aphrodisios the Hindu, when he ruled over Egypt, about 900 years after the deluge. [6] This reference, which cannot be literally true because of the sheer distance between the two regions, is significant for it preserves the memory of a "Hindu" (Indic-inspired) king of Egypt prior to the Greek state. The reference to the chariots of war of this king (Akhenaten) seems to remember the foreigner warlords Hyksos (literally, ruler of the foreign countries) who ruled Egypt during the Second Intermediate Period just before the New Kingdom to which Akhenaten belonged.
It is not surprising then that the iconic Shiva-Shakti Yantra of the Indian spiritual tradition is identical to the Star of David of the Jews. A picture of the Star of David from the Leningrad Codex with a date of 1008 in its colophon is presented for comparison.



Leningrad Codex: the oldest complete manuscript of the Hebrew Bible in Hebrew, 1008 CE.
But how could the Indic element be so far from India, in Syria and Egypt? Scholars have suggested that after catastrophic earthquakes, or a long drought that dried up the Sarasvati River around 1900 BCE, there was the abandonment of Harappan cities and great migrations away in all directions [7]. Within India, we see the focus of the Sindhu-Sarasvati culture shift eastwards. To the west, we see the Kassites, a somewhat shadowy aristocracy with Indic names and worshiping Surya and the Maruts, in Western Iran about 1800 BCE. They captured power in Babylon in 1600 BCE, which they were to rule for over 500 years. And then, of course, we have the long line of the Sanskritic Mitanni aristocracy of Syria that we have already spoken about.

Megasthenes (350-290 BCE), the ambassador of Seleucus I to the court of Chandragupta Maurya in Pataliputra appears to have been aware of the connections between the Indians and the Jews. In the third book of Indica, as available to the Church Father Clement of Alexandria (200 CE), he writes: "All that has been said regarding nature by the ancients is asserted also by philosophers out of Greece, on the one part in India by the Brachmanes, and on the other in Syria by the people called the Jews." [8]

A thousand years later, the memory of a special link between the Jews and India persisted. Al-Biruni mentions on page 206, vol. 1 of Alberuni's India by Edward Sachau, that no foreigners excepting the Jews were permitted to enter Kashmir during the period it was under attack by Muslims.

India has its own Jewish communities that are found principally in South India; the oldest of these is that of the Cochin Jews. They believe they are the descendants of traders from Judea who arrived in 562 BCE, with others coming as exiles in 70 CE after the destruction of the Second Temple [9]. It appears that there was migration of communities in both directions.
Cochin Jews, c. 1900. From the 1901-1906 Jewish Encyclopedia.

Bibliography

  1. Flavius Josephus, Against Apion, Project Gutenberg: http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/2849
  2. Subhash Kak, 'Akhenaten, Surya, and the Rgveda', In G.C. Pande (ed.), A Golden Chain of Civilizations: Indic, Iranic, Semitic, and Hellenic up to C. 600 BCE, Munshiram Manoharlal, 2007. http://www.ece.lsu.edu/kak/akhena.pdf
  3. Dominic Montserrat, Akhenaten: History, Fantasy and Ancient Egypt, Routledge, 2002.
  4. Subhash Kak, The Wishing Tree, Aditya Prakashan, New Delhi, 2015.
  5. Sigmund Freud, Moses and Monotheism, The Hogarth Press, 1939.
  6. Al-Biruni, Tarikh Al-Hind, E.C. Sachau trans., Alberuni's India, Kegan Paul, London, 1910.
  7. G. Feuerstein, S. Kak, and D. Frawley, In Search of the Cradle of Civilization, Quest Books, 2001.
  8. J.W. McCrindle, Ancient India As Described By Megasthenes And Arrian, Trübner & Co, London, 1877.
  9. Peter Schäfer, The History of the Jews in Antiquity, Routledge, 1995.
YouTube video on ai-Khanoum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tka9TFyWIw

Subhash Kak is Regents Professor and a previous Head of the Computer Science Department at Oklahoma State University, who has made contributions to cryptography, artificial neural networks, and quantum information.
Kak is also notable for his Indological publications on the history of science, the philosophy of science, ancient astronomy, and the history of mathematics. Alan Sokal labeled Kak "one of the leading intellectual luminaries of the Hindu-nationalist diaspora".

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This Is How The Next World War Starts


With one miscalculation, by one startled pilot, at 400 miles an hour. And now that Russia is determined to destabilize the West, this scenario is keeping the military establishment up at night.

By David Wood

Illustrations by Cam Floyd Animation by Pablo Espinosa


Several times a week, a U.S. Air Force pilot takes off from the Royal Air Force base in Mildenhall, England, and heads for the northernmost edge of NATO territory to gather intelligence on Russia. One of these pilots is 40-year-old Lieutenant Colonel Kevin Webster, a veteran of many such expeditions and a hard guy to rattle. On a typical flight, his four-engine, silver and white RC-135 jet will rise gracefully over the old World War II bomber bases in East Anglia. It then flies over the North Sea and Denmark, taking care to remain within international airspace. When Webster reaches the Baltic Sea, the surveillance operation begins in earnest. Behind the cockpit, the fuselage of his plane is crammed with electronic equipment manned by some two dozen intelligence officers and analysts. They sit in swivel chairs, monitoring emissions, radar data and military communications harvested from below that appear on their computer screens or stream through their headphones. Inside the plane, it is chilly. The air smells faintly of jet fuel, rubber and warm wiring. The soft blue carpet helps absorb the distant thrum of the engines, and so it is also surprisingly quiet—at least until the Russians show up.

As the Polish coast fades into the distance, Webster may swing left to avoid passing directly over the heavily armed Russian base at Kaliningrad. This is where, without warning, a Russian SU-27 fighter may materialize as if out of nowhere, right outside the cockpit window, flying so close that Webster can make out the tail markings. No matter how often this happens—and lately, it has been happening a lot—these encounters always give Webster a jolt. For one thing, he and his crew can't see the planes coming. Although his jet is carrying millions of dollars worth of the most sophisticated listening devices available to man, it lacks a simple radar to spot an incoming plane. So the only way Webster can find out what the Russian jet is doing—how close it's flying, whether it's making any sudden moves—is to dispatch a junior airman to crouch on the floor and peer through one of the 135's three fuselage windows, each the size of a cereal box and inconveniently placed just below knee level.
In normal times, being intercepted isn't a cause for concern. Russian jets routinely shadow American jets over the Baltic Sea and elsewhere. Americans routinely intercept Russian aircraft along the Alaskan and California coasts. The idea is to identify the plane and perhaps to signal, "You keep an eye on us, we keep an eye on you." These, however, are far from normal times. Every few weeks, a Russian pilot will get aggressive. Instead of closing in on the RC-135 at around 30 miles per hour and skulking off its wing for a while, a fighter jet will careen directly toward the American plane at 150 miles per hour or more before abruptly going nose-up to bleed off airspeed and avoid a collision. Or it might perform the dreaded "barrel roll"—a hair-raising maneuver in which the Russian jet makes a 360-degree orbit around the 135's midsection while the two aircraft hurtle along at 400 miles per hour. When this happens, there is only one thing the U.S. pilot can do: pucker up,[1] 1. A common military expression that refers to a certain type of, well, clenching in times of extreme anxiety. fly straight and hope his Russian counterpart doesn't smash into him. "One false move and you may have a half second to react," one RC-135 pilot told me.


The Dreaded Barrel Roll
1.The Russian jet approaches and slides in under the right-hand wing of the U.S. plane. 2.The Russian jet passes under the U.S. plane as it starts to roll around the midsection. 3.At the top of the roll, the Russian pilot is looking straight down at the U.S. plane.
INFOGRAPHIC BY HIGHLINE

By now, it is widely recognized that Russia is waging a campaign of covert political manipulation across the United States, Europe and the Middle East, fueling fears of a second Cold War. But it's less understood that in international airspace and waters, Russia and the U.S. are brushing up against each other in perilous ways with alarming frequency. This problem, which began not long after Russia's seizure of the Crimea in 2014, has accelerated rapidly in the past year. In 2015, according to its air command headquarters, NATO scrambled jets more than 400 times to intercept Russian military aircraft that were flying without having broadcast their required identification code or having filed a flight plan. In 2016, that number had leapt to 780—an average of more than two intercepts a day. There has been a similar increase in Russian jets intercepting US or NATO aircraft, as well as a significant uptick in incidents at sea in which Russian jets run mock attacks against American warships.

Russia is hardly the only source of anxiety for the Pentagon. American and Chinese ships and aircraft have clashed in the South China Sea; in early 2016, Iran seized 10 Navy sailors after their boats strayed into its waters. But senior U.S. officials view run-ins with Russia as the most dangerous, because they are part of a deliberate strategy of intimidation and provocation by Russian president Vladimir Putin—and because the stakes are so high. One false move by a hot-dogging Russian pilot could send an American aircraft and its crew spiraling 20,000 feet into the sea. Any nearby U.S. fighter would have to immediately decide whether to shoot down the Russian plane. And if the pilot did retaliate, the U.S. and Russia could quickly find themselves on the brink of open hostility.
"We are now at maximum danger," said Admiral James Stavridis, a former commander of NATO.
With these issues in mind, I traveled to Germany this winter to talk with U.S. Air Force General Tod D. Wolters, who commands American and NATO air operations. We sat in his headquarters at Ramstein Air Base, a gleaming, modern complex where officers in the uniforms of various NATO nations bustle efficiently through polished corridors. "The degree of hair-triggeredness is a concern," said Wolters, a former fighter pilot who encountered Soviet bloc pilots during the Cold War. "The possibility of an intercept gone wrong," he added, is "on my mind 24/7/365." Admiral James G. Stavridis, the commander of NATO from 2009 to 2013, is more blunt. The potential for miscalculation "is probably higher than at any other point since the end of the Cold War," he told me. "We are now at maximum danger."

This may sound counter-intuitive, given President Donald Trump's extravagant professions of admiration for Putin. But the strong consensus inside the U.S. military establishment is that the pattern of Russian provocation will continue—and not just because the various investigations into the Trump campaign's links with Russia make détente politically unlikely. Antagonizing the West is central to one of Putin's most cherished ambitions: undermining NATO. By constantly pushing the limits with risky intercepts and other tactics, Putin forces NATO to make difficult choices about when and how to respond that can sow dissension among its members.
In addition, a certain belligerence towards the U.S. is practically a political necessity for Putin. The Russian leader owes his popularity to "the tiger of patriotic mobilization," said Leon Aron, the director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Given the country's diminished status in the world and its stalled economy, he added, militarized fervor for the motherland "is the only thing going for his regime." Meanwhile,[2] 2. According to an analysis by the U.S. Army War College, "the top leadership is moving the country onto a war footing" in response to what it sees as "an arc of crisis around Russia and a period of great turbulence in international affairs." since the departure of Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, his foreign policy team is now dominated by officials who advocate a hard line on Russia.[3] 3. These include ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, national security adviser H.R. McMaster, and senior National Security Council Russia adviser Fiona Hill. Secretary of Defense James Mattis predicted at his confirmation hearing that "there are an increasing number of areas where we are going to have to confront Russia." For all these reasons, Philip Breedlove, who retired last summer after three years as supreme allied commander of NATO, isn't optimistic that Russia will back off anytime soon. "We're in a bad place and it's getting worse rather than better," he told me. "The probability of coming up against that unintended but strategic mess-up is, I think, rising rather than becoming less likely." When Breedlove's successor, General Curtis Scaparrotti, took command in May 2016, he grimly warned a gathering of diplomats and officers of a "resurgent Russia" and cautioned that NATO must be ready "to fight tonight if deterrence fails."

All of this is happening at a time when most of the old Cold War safeguards for resolving tensions with Russia—treaties, gentlemen's understandings, unofficial back channels—have fallen away. When a Russian jet barrel-rolls a U.S. aircraft, a senior U.S. official hops in a car and is driven to the white marble monolith on Wisconsin Avenue that houses the Russian embassy. There, he sits down with Sergey Kislyak, the ambassador who has recently attained minor fame for his surreptitious meetings with various Trump associates. A typical conversation, the U.S. official told me, goes something like this: "I say, 'Look here, Sergey, we had this incident on April 11, this is getting out of hand, this is dangerous.'" Kislyak, the official said, benignly denies that any misbehavior has occurred. (When I made my own trip to the embassy late last year, a senior official assured me with a polite smile that Russian pilots do nothing dangerous—and certainly not barrel-rolls.)
Among the many senior officers I spoke to in Washington and Europe who are worried about Russia, there was one more factor fueling their anxiety: their new commander-in-chief, and how he might react in a crisis. After a Russian fighter barrel-rolled an RC-135 over the Baltic Sea last April, Trump fumed that the Obama administration had only lodged a diplomatic protest. He considered this to be a weak response. "It just shows how low we've gone, where they can toy with us like that," he complained on a radio talk show. "It shows a lack of respect." If he were president, Trump went on, he would do things differently. "You wanna at least make a phone call or two," he conceded. "[But] at a certain point, when that sucker comes by you, you gotta shoot. You gotta shoot. I mean, you gotta shoot."



One day in the mid-1980s, I stood with a cluster of American troopers on a hillside observation post near the Fulda Gap, on the border between East and West Germany. If there was going to be a war, it would come here. The Red Army would pour across the border and attempt to bludgeon the smaller U.S. and NATO forces into surrender. Each side had deployed nuclear weapons close at hand.
The soldiers at the border post were tense, serious. A few nights earlier, a man had tried to escape from the East, sprinting jaggedly across a stretch of plowed ground, somehow avoiding snipers, landmines and teams of killer dogs. The East German police shot him as he scaled a chain-link fence mere yards from the safety of West Germany. Impaled on the barbed wire, he bled slowly to death as the Americans watched in horror, his fading cries cutting through the night.

From my vantage point on top of an old concrete bunker, I looked across the misty farmland. A mile or two away were the emplacements of the Soviet Red Army. "See 'em? Right there!" a sergeant told me. Not sure whether I was looking in the right place, I raised my hand to point. The sergeant swiftly knocked it down. "We don't point!" he exclaimed, almost panicked. Russian and American commanders had banned such gestures, since they could so easily be mistaken for someone raising a weapon. Among troops on the front line, there was an unmistakable sense that catastrophic war was more likely to be set off by an accident than by an intentional invasion.

Looking back, it seems nothing short of miraculous that the Cold War actually remained cold. On so many occasions, misunderstandings and confusion could have erupted into mutual annihilation. One of the most frightening near-misses came in 1983, when the aging Soviet leadership in the Kremlin was convinced that an attack by the U.S. was imminent. They had been badly rattled by President Ronald Reagan's declaration that the Soviet superpower was an "evil empire" destined for "the ash-heap of history," and by his talk of developing a so-called Star Wars defense system capable of zapping any target from space. And so when Soviet spies began reporting on a large-scale US-NATO military exercise, code-named Able Archer, the Kremlin concluded that they were witnessing preparations for a massive conventional and nuclear offensive.

Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty on December 8, 1987. It was the first time that the two sides committed to reducing their nuclear arsenals. (Alfred Gescheidt/Getty Images)

It did look like the real thing. The Pentagon sent tanks, artillery and 19,000 troops into Germany for weeks of mock combat operations. Bombers were loaded with dummy nuclear warheads in a rehearsal of procedures for transitioning from conventional to nuclear war. In Moscow, the General Staff began calling up military reserves and canceling troop leaves. Factories conducted air raid drills. Fighter and bomber squadrons were put on heightened alert. And inside the Kremlin, senior leaders considered a preemptive nuclear strike to avoid defeat, according to a top-secret U.S. intelligence report produced six years later. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency picked up some of this, but officials simply didn't believe the Soviets thought the U.S. intended to launch a nuclear attack. After all, they reasoned, these rehearsals were an annual event and the U.S. and NATO had even issued press releases describing Able Archer as a training exercise. They didn't realize that in Moscow, these assurances were waved aside as lies.

The Soviets decided not to act, for reasons that remain unclear—but misunderstandings like these alarmed both sides. The U.S. and Russia together had more than 61,000 nuclear warheads, many mounted on missiles targeted at each other and on hair-trigger alert. And so, beginning in the late 1980s, the United States, Russia and their allies started developing a set of formal mechanisms for preventing accidental war. These treaties and agreements limited the size of deployed forces, required both sides to exchange detailed information about weapon types and locations and allowed for observers to attend field exercises. Regular meetings were held to iron out complaints. Russian and American tank commanders even chatted during military exercises. The aim, ultimately, was to make military activities more transparent and predictable. "They worked—we didn't go to war!" said Franklin C. Miller, who oversaw crises and nuclear negotiations during a long Pentagon career.
And yet few of these agreements have survived Putin's regime and the brewing animosity between Moscow and Washington. The problem, a senior U.S. official explained, isn't that the agreements are faulty or outdated, but rather that the Russians can no longer be trusted to observe them.


A Retreat From Treaties
An agreement between the U.S. and USSR on the "Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas" set rules for safe navigation for ships and aircraft, with violations discussed at annual conferences. For some years, there was continuous communication between Russian and American officers between conferences, but that has stopped. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty eliminated all short- and medium-range nuclear and conventional missiles and launchers from Europe (nearly 2,700 were destroyed). Today, Russia charges that the U.S. deployment of a missile defense system in Romania is a violation of the treaty; Russia's recent deployment of nuclear-capable cruise missiles appears to violate the agreement. No resolution is in sight. The Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities was signed by the U.S. and the USSR. It established rules and crisis communications between their respective military forces in Europe. The agreement became null after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 and was never replaced. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe mandated reductions of armed forces to agreed-upon limits, verified by site inspections. Russia suspended cooperation in 2007. In 2011, the U.S. announced it would no longer abide by certain provisions pertaining to Russia. In March 2015, Russia formally ended participation. The Vienna Document currently has 56 signatories, including the U.S. and Russia. It limits the size of exercises and mandates notification of military activities and of hazardous incidents. The agreement failed during the Ukraine crisis when Russia refused to admit monitors and ignored violations cited by inspectors in Ukraine. The U.S. has proposed updating the agreement; Russia has declined. According to NATO officials, it is now routinely observed by NATO and routinely ignored by Russia. The Open Skies Treaty, which went into effect in 2002, provides for unarmed aerial observation flights over NATO territory, Eastern Europe, Russia and elsewhere. For the past two years, Russia has restricted U.S. military flights over Kaliningrad, its fortress on the Baltic Sea.

The result is that the U.S and Russia are now more outwardly antagonistic than they have been in years. Since the Cold War ended in 1991, NATO has accepted 10 European countries formerly allied with the Soviet Union. In response, Russia has expanded its military; engaged in powerful cyberwar attacks against Estonia, Germany, Finland, Lithuania and other countries; seized parts of Georgia; forcibly annexed Crimea; sent its troops into Ukraine; and staged multiple no-notice exercises with the ground and air power it would use to invade its Baltic neighbors. In one such maneuver last year, Russia mobilized some 12,500 combat troops in territory near Poland and the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. According to a technical analysis by the RAND Corp., a lightning Russia strike could carry its troops into NATO capitals in the Baltics in less than 60 hours.
Last year, NATO shifted its official strategy from "assurance"—a passive declaration to stand by its allies—to "deterrence," which requires sufficient combat power to repel armed aggression. The alliance also approved a new multinational response force, some 40,000 troops in all. In January, under a separate Obama administration initiative, the United States rushed a 4,000-strong armored brigade combat team to Poland and the Baltic states. (Lieutenant General Tim Ray, the deputy commander of U.S. forces in Europe, explained that its objective is to "to deter Russian aggression" by stationing "battle-ready" forces in forward positions.) Army engineers have started strengthening eastern European runways to accept heavier air shipments and are reconfiguring some eastern European railroads to handle rail cars carrying tanks and heavy armor. This March, a U.S. combat aviation brigade arrived in Germany with attack gunships, transport and medevac helicopters and drones, and is deploying its units to Latvia, Romania and Poland.

So far, these efforts to shore up NATO have proceeded despite the Trump administration's occasional shows of disdain for the military alliance.[4] 4. Trump has called NATO "obsolete" and repeatedly chastised members for not paying their fair share of defense costs. In a March meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Trump pointedly did not shake her hand. In late March, Scaparrotti acknowledged that he had not yet briefed the president about NATO-Russia relations. However, Trump's secretary of defense, Jim Mattis, recently made a point of affirming that NATO is the "fundamental bedrock" of American security. Any change to that policy would be met with fierce opposition in Congress from defense stalwarts like Senator John McCain of Arizona, who is demanding that the United States use "all elements of American power" against Russia.
This February, the two top commanders of the United States and Russia met in Azerbaijan, in a rare effort to bring some stability to U.S.-Russia relations. A month later, they met again in Turkey to review a procedure to prevent accidents involving aircraft operating over Syria. But that's a narrow issue. A broader restoration of the Cold War-era constraints on military activity seems unlikely. Increasingly, each side sees the other as an adversary. A senior Russian diplomat put the blame squarely on the United States. "We are being seen as an object to deter—as the enemy," he told me. "In that case, how are we going to talk?"

What this means is that there are few remaining mechanisms to defuse unexpected emergencies. In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee in late March, Scaparrotti acknowledged that he has virtually no contact with Russian military leaders. ("Don't you think that would be a good idea?" Independent Senator Angus King of Maine queried. "If you could say, 'Wait a minute, that missile was launched by accident, don't get alarmed'?") In 2014, in response to Russia's intervention in Crimea, Congress passed a law halting almost all military-to-military communications. Even the spontaneous and informal exchanges that used to occur among Russian and American officers have largely ended.

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who commands U.S. Army forces in Europe, told me last year that he knew his Russian counterpart—at the time, Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov—but had no direct contact with him. If a problem arose—say, a U.S. Special Forces sergeant serving as a trainer in Ukraine suddenly encountered a Russian commando and gunfire broke out—Hodges couldn't have called Kartapolov to cool things off. There are no other direct lines of communication. Once, Hodges told me, he sat next to the general at a conference. He filled Kartapolov's water glass and gave him a business card, but the gestures were not reciprocated and they never spoke.



In December 2015, a Turkish F-16 jet shot down a Russian SU-24 fighter on the Turkish-Syrian border. The Russian fighter plummeted in flames and its co-pilot was killed by ground fire. The surviving pilot, Captain Konstantin Murakhtin, said he'd been attacked without warning; Turkey insisted that the Russian plane had violated its airspace. Within days Putin had deftly turned the incident to his advantage. Instead of seeking to punish Turkey, he accused the U.S. of having a hand in the incident, without any evidence. Then he coaxed Turkey, a NATO member, into participating in joint combat operations over Syria. He also engineered Syrian peace talks in which the United States was pointedly not invited to participate. It was a bravura performance. Russia, says Breedlove, the retired NATO commander, "is playing three-dimensional chess while we are playing checkers."
Putin's favored tactic, intelligence officials say, is known as "escalation dominance." The idea is to push the other side until you win, a senior officer based in Europe explained—to "escalate to the point where the adversary stops, won't go farther. It's a very destabilizing strategy." Stavridis cast it in the terms of an old Russian proverb: "Probe with a bayonet; when you hit steel withdraw, when you hit mush, proceed." Right now, he added, "the Russians keep pushing out and hitting mush."


This mindset is basically the opposite of how both American and Soviet leaders approached each other during the Cold War, even during periods of exceptional stress such as the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Having endured the devastation of World War II, they understood the horror that lurked on the far side of a crisis. "When things started to get too close, they would back off," said Miller, the retired Pentagon official.

The term of art for this constant recalibration of risk is "crisis management"—the "most demanding form of diplomacy," writes Sir Lawrence Freedman, an emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London. Leaders had to make delicate judgments about when to push their opponent and when to create face-saving off-ramps. Perhaps most critically, they had to possess the confidence to de-escalate when necessary. Skilled crisis management, Freedman writes, requires "an ability to match deeds with words, to convey threats without appearing reckless, and to offer concessions without appearing soft, often while under intense media scrutiny and facing severe time pressures."
A recent textbook example came in January 2016, when Iran seized those 10 U.S. Navy sailors, claiming that they had been spying in Iranian waters in the eastern Persian Gulf. President Barack Obama's secretary of state, John Kerry, immediately opened communications with his counterpart in Tehran, using channels established for negotiating the nuclear deal with Iran. By the next morning, the sailors had been released. The U.S. acknowledged the sailors had strayed into Iranian waters but did not apologize, asserting that the transgression had been an innocent error. Iran, meanwhile, acknowledged that the sailors had not been spying. (The peaceful resolution was not applauded by Breitbart News, headed at the time by Stephen Bannon, who is now Trump's chief White House strategist. Obama, a Breitbart writer sneered, has been "castrated on the world stage by Iran.")
Today, thanks to real-time video, the men in the Kremlin and White House can know—or think they know—as much as the guy in the cockpit of a plane or on the bridge of a warship.

Neither Putin nor Trump, it's safe to say, are crisis managers by nature. Both are notoriously thin-skinned, operate on instinct, and have a tendency to shun expert advice. (These days, Putin is said to surround himself not with seasoned diplomats but cronies from his old spy days.) Both are unafraid of brazenly lying, fueling an atmosphere of extreme distrust on both sides. Stavridis, who has studied both Putin and Trump and who met with Trump in December, concluded that the two leaders "are not risk-averse. They are risk-affectionate." Aron, the Russia expert, said, "I think there is a much more cavalier attitude by Putin toward war in general and the threat of nuclear weapons. He continued, "He is not a madman, but he is much more inclined to use the threat of nuclear weapons in conventional [military] and political confrontation with the West." Perhaps the most significant difference between the two is that Putin is far more calculating than Trump. In direct negotiations, he is said to rely on videotaped analysis of the facial expressions of foreign leaders that signal when the person is bluffing, confused or lying.

At times, Trump has been surprisingly quick to lash out at a perceived slight from Putin, although these moments have been overshadowed by his effusive praise for the Russian leader. On December 22, Putin promised to strengthen Russia's strategic nuclear forces in his traditional year-end speech to his officer corps. Hours later, Trump vowed, via Twitter, to "greatly strengthen and expand" the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal. On Morning Joe the following day, host Mika Brzezinski said that Trump had told her on a phone call, "Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all." And in late March, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was becoming increasingly frustrated with Russia, throwing up his hands in exasperation when informed that Russia may have violated an arms treaty.

Some in national security circles see Trump's impulsiveness as a cause for concern but not for panic. "He can always overreact," said Anthony Cordesman, senior strategic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a veteran of many national security posts throughout the U.S. government. "[But] there are a lot of people [around the president] to prevent an overreaction with serious consequences." Let's say that Trump acted upon his impulse to tell a fighter pilot to shoot a jet that barrel-rolled an American plane. Such a response would still have to be carried out by the Pentagon, Cordesman said—a process with lots of room for senior officers to say, "Look, boss, this is a great idea but can we talk about the repercussions?"



While Cold War presidents used the "red phone" (which was actually not a phone, but a special Telex terminal) to deter war with the Russians, the current president has an itchy Twitter finger. Emory Kristof/National Geographic/Getty Images

And yet that process is no longer as robust as it once was. Many senior policymaking positions at the Pentagon and State Department remain unfilled. A small cabal in the White House, including Bannon, Jared Kushner and a few others, has asserted a role in foreign policy decisions outside the normal NSC process. It's not yet clear how much influence is wielded by Trump's widely respected national security adviser, Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster. When lines of authority and influence are so murky, it increases the risk that a minor incident could boil up into an unintended clash, said retired Marine Corps General John Allen, who has served in senior military and diplomatic posts.
To complicate matters further, the relentless pace of information in the social media age has destroyed the one precious factor that helped former leaders safely navigate perilous situations: time. It's hard to believe now, but during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, for instance, President Kennedy and his advisers deliberated for a full 10 weeks before announcing a naval quarantine of the island. In 1969, a U.S. spy plane was shot down by North Korean jets over the Sea of Japan, killing all 31 Americans on board. It took 26 hours for the Pentagon and State Department to recommend courses of action to President Richard Nixon, according to a declassified secret assessment. (Nixon eventually decided not to respond.) Today, thanks to real-time video and data streaming, the men in the Kremlin and White House can know—or think they know—as much as the guy in the cockpit of a plane or on the bridge of a warship. The president no longer needs to rely on reports from military leaders that have been filtered through their expertise and deeper knowledge of the situation on the ground. Instead, he can watch a crisis unfold on a screen and react in real time. Once news of an incident hits the internet, the pressure to respond becomes even harder to withstand. "The ability to recover from early missteps is greatly reduced," Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has written. "The speed of war has changed, and the nature of these changes makes the global security environment even more unpredictable, dangerous, and unforgiving."

And so in the end, no matter how cool and unflappable the instincts of military men and women like Kevin Webster, what will smother the inevitable spark is steady, thoughtful leadership from within the White House and the Kremlin. A recognition that first reports may be wrong; a willingness to absorb new and perhaps unwelcome information; a thick skin to ward off insults and accusations; an acknowledgment of the limited value of threats and bluffs; and a willingness to recognize the core interests of the other side and a willingness to accept a face-saving solution. These qualities are not notably on display in either capital.

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